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不是每个人都认为卖空已经死了

基金经理克里斯布朗(chrisbrown)逆势认为,一场巨大的市场“吹风”即将来临。

至少有一位对冲基金经理表示,卖空行为依然存在。

Following a month when members of a Reddit forum pushed heavily shorted stocks sky high and pilloried short sellers in the process, many of them have bemoaned their fate andworried about the future.

But not Chris Brown, founder and managing member of Aristides Capital, which runs a long-short strategy. Aristides’ short book — which includes names like GSX Techedu, the Chinese online educator, and Cel-Sci, a biotech company — certainly hurt its performance last month.

阿里斯蒂德旗下的主要对冲基金本月底出现亏损,跌幅达3.64%,另外一项量化策略也没有表现得更好。下跌3.60%。

但布朗很乐观。“长话短说:我们挺过了这场危机,”他在1月31日的信中写道亚博赞助欧冠已获得。

布朗指出,投资者一直在问,“当前的情况会永远改变做空吗?”

“我不这么认为,”他说。“有相当多的哑巴资金流入市场的某些角落,在可预见的未来还会有。”

“尽管最近市场的资金面已经疯狂,市场人气已经捉襟见肘,”他继续说道,“但如果金融状况没有最终带来巨大的冲击,那么金融状况是否会如此宽松,还是值得怀疑的。”

他说,到1月底,许多对冲基金已经取消了空头头寸,这意味着“空头利率极度紧张的股票减少了”。因此,他认为,“我怀疑我们是否会看到相当多的资金以同样的速度流入垃圾股。”

But there was no way to avoid the rout that began with January’s Reddit-engineered short squeeze in GameStop, which led to similar action in other names hedge fundMelvin Capitalwas short. In his letter, Brown laid out how he defended against the short squeeze in two of his shorts.

One of them was Melvin Capital short GSX, which Brown said was “unfortunately a favorite short of ours as well.”

早在1月13日,布朗就表示,他意识到发生了什么,“并因此减少了我们对GSX的敞口。”但他表示,该基金“保留了我们相当一部分的头寸,因为(1)我们喜欢GSX作为空头;即使其70%的收入没有欺诈,该股今年的收益为12倍,净利润率为负20%,(2)我们的大部分仓位都是卖出价差,这意味着我们在这些仓位上可能损失的最多是100%,而不是直接做空可能造成的200%以上的损失,”他解释道。

GSX否认了卖空者关于其收入欺诈的指控。

But Brown admitted he didn’t trim some of his shorts “nearly fast enough.”

例如,布朗在挤兑前在生物技术公司Cel Sci补足了约三分之一的空头。他告诉投资者:“我讨厌这样做;虽然该公司已经完成了几乎肯定失败的第3阶段试验,但它已经坐视数据好几个月了,一旦他们公布数据,他们的药物显然不起作用,该股几乎肯定会暴跌。”。

Cel-Sci在1月11日发布的2020财年年终报告中表示,试验结果的发布“由于试验地点的地理多样性以及与流感大流行相关的延误而变得复杂”。该公司承诺,一旦完成全面分析并将结果提交给公司后,将公布结果。Cel Sci没有立即回复置评请求。

In the meantime, Brown said, “I knew looking at the chart that the stock might have a technical breakout soon, and I figured if it started to break out, I would cover another 1/3 of our short position. I didn’t anticipate the breakout occurring as fast and sharp as it did.”

The stock went from $15 to $40 in one day “on no news whatsoever, except for the company’s CEO tweeting at serial SPAC sponsor and pseudo-populist billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya.”

[深潜:Hindenburg Research Goes After ‘Wall Street Celebrity Promoter’ Chamath Palihapitiya]

他说:“几分钟之内,Redditor就想把它变成下一个游戏站。”。“由于担心股价可能再次翻番,我以可怕的价格买进了更多的……仓位,本月我们最终在该仓位上损失了119个基点。”

Brown noted that “it wasn’t just Redditors and bored retail investors gunning at shorts…. The retreat of long-short funds themselves contributed a great deal to the price action.”

短期回调的预期the GameStop fracas, he said the fund lowered net exposure into the low 40s. But once the correction was over, he anticipated looking for ways to increase the fund's net exposure.

他推测:“这并不是说‘这次情况不同了’;它们的结局很可能与投机繁荣的结局相同;但我们可能还没有走到尽头。”。“只要流动性流入金融体系,刺激政策继续,消费者资产负债表保持强劲,股市就可能继续上涨。”

布朗还预测,不会有“严重的负面立法/监管变化的结果发生。”他赞扬参议员伊丽莎白沃伦的情况,并说,在立法者中,她“有最冷静的看法事件,她比大多数人都更了解监管良好的金融体系的重要性。”

他总结道:“同样的误解(不,经纪商并没有为了帮助对冲基金而在游戏中间改变规则)和民粹主义的狂热感染了大部分的讨论……似乎不太可能成功地感染60名参议员的思想。”。