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为了建立他的私人银行,帕维兹·阿吉利必须在伊朗改革派政府和极端保守的神职人员之间架起一座桥梁。他的困境是现代伊朗的。

    为了建立他的私人银行,帕维兹·阿吉利必须在伊朗改革派政府和极端保守的神职人员之间架起一座桥梁。他的困境是现代伊朗的。

    由Colin Barraclough.
    December 2001
    亚博赞助欧冠机构投资者杂志

    1979年,当霍梅尼推翻沙阿·穆罕默德·雷扎·巴列维(Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi)并在伊朗建立伊斯兰共和国时,帕维兹·阿吉利(Parviz Aghili)和其他技术娴熟的伊朗中产阶级一样,携家人逃离伊朗。作为一名经验丰富的银行家,他曾担任伊朗发展和投资银行的副总经理,他能够在附近的迪拜找到一份不错的工作,担任香港上海汇丰银行(Hongkong&Shanghai Banking Corp.)区域投资银行部门Wardley Middle East的执行董事。但五年后,阿吉里搬到了多伦多,在那里他第一次为香港的加拿大银行工作,然后领导了一家租赁公司,并代表其首席债权人ANZ银行在安大略北部经营了一家苦苦挣扎的生产商。

    然而,他对祖国的感情仍很强烈。因此,当阿基利在1993年听说伊朗准备再次允许私人银行时,他回到德黑兰,申请了银行业许可证。”“当我刚回来的时候,央行告诉我要花两个月才能拿到银行执照,”他懊悔地说但这是伊朗,两个月变成了六年。

    But finally, in mid-1999, Aghili, then 53, was given a preliminary license to establish what Iran's ruling clerics chose to call a "nonbanking credit institution." In all but name it was a bank: The only special restriction was that it couldn't offer checking accounts. "Under Islamic law, if you bounce a check, you go to jail," Aghili says. "The authorities just didn't want those problems arising."

    Aghili set about turning his nonbank bank, the Karafarinan Credit Institution, into a full-service finance house serving corporate and retail customers. The name translates roughly as "job creators." He raised some $17 million in initial capital from private Iranian investors, installed a computer system and opened two branches in Tehran. Soon the bank began to attract customers who wanted better returns on their deposits and readier access to capital than that provided by state banks or local money lenders.

    九月,推出两年后,卡拉法兰收到了完整的银行许可证,成为伊朗在二十多年来的第一个全面的私人银行。

    阿基利的经历集中体现了伊朗商人面临的困难,伊朗政治领导人试图在执政毛拉的怀疑和通常充满敌意的目光下推行改革,启动伊朗停滞不前的经济。普通的伊朗人,许多太年轻了,不记得国王,憎恶国家的半贱民地位,并大声呼吁伊朗重新融入世界经济。该国的青年——超过一半的人口在21岁以下,男女都有资格在16岁时投票——一直是改革运动的推动力。政客们听了。即使是更保守的神职人员也越来越现实地认识到需要外国投资和专业知识来阻止经济衰退。

    1997年的选举在一个温和的牧师,Sayed Muhammad Khatami,总统加速了现代化伊斯兰共和国的努力。在过去的改革者主导的议会的选举中获得了动力,或者Majlis和Khatami自己的重新选择 - 这是六月过去的77%。总统的背景是左派知识分子的背景,最喜欢在经济发展中更加公平地分配财富。哈塔米仍然介绍了央行的范围,以管理伊朗的外债,并监督外国投资的更大开放,特别是石油,天然气和石化产业。然而,他努力削减繁殖的红磁带和减少腐败,私有化国有产业并使经济远离石油出口的经济面临着穆拉斯和他拥有更多左翼支撑者的反对。

    Nonetheless, the president has ushered in a policy of d,tente with Iran's Arab neighbors, normalized relations with Europe and even put out cautious feelers toward the Great Satan itself, the U.S. Khatami was quick to condemn the September 11 World Trade Center attacks. In a speech at the United Nations, he declared that the assault had been "perpetrated by a cult of fanatics who had self-mutilated their ears and tongues, and could only communicate with perceived opponents through carnage and devastation."

    许多伊朗人似乎分享了他的观点:也许在所有中东地区到9月11日的世界贸易中心袭击中最引人注目的反应是伊朗的亲美示威活动,毕竟是一个伊斯兰的伊斯兰神秘股份与阿富汗560英里边界。

    然而,无论是普通伊朗人,还是总统和民选政府,都无法在伊朗掌握最终权力。伊朗未经选举产生的最高宗教领袖阿亚图拉·赛义德·阿里·哈梅内伊(Vali Faqih)对政策决定拥有最终决定权,他经常出面遏制不耐烦的改革者。与此同时,司法部门和安全部队的高级神职人员也在竭力反对改革,关闭进步派报纸,监禁持不同政见者,废除自由化立法。

    伊朗未来的战斗比经济政策更加激烈。在“79革命”之后不久,伊朗的新文教统治者将银行淘汰出局,踢出了外国金融机构,消除了基于利息的银行业,并坚持认为银行采用伊斯兰指南。官员设计了一个系统,银行将在贷款中提供“收费”费用“的”盈利“。

    Ever since, the banks have struggled to provide credit to Iran's business sector. Returns on deposits have consistently fallen below the inflation rate. Unable to resist the demands of government ministries and the bonyad (Iran's powerful, ostensibly private Islamic charities), the five large national commercial banks - Bank Mellat, Bank Melli Iran, Bank Saderat Iran, Bank Sepah and Bank Tejerat - have become encumbered with loans to the bloated state industrial sector. Foreign banks, which have been allowed to reopen representative offices, are not permitted to conduct business in Iran. As a result, the private sector has had little sustained success obtaining long-term credit.

    新规则也阉割了央行。无法使用利率政策来挤压资金供应,通过操纵银行的储备比率和政府借贷限制,必须通过控制信贷来攻击通货膨胀。这些工具证明了笨重,主要是无效。

    Central bank officials have long recognized that a shake-up of the financial sector is needed to promote Iran's private sector and boost nonoil exports. Shortly after his '97 election victory, President Khatami described the economy as "sick." He has called for honoring the promises of Iran's latest five-year economic plan, which commits the government to a range of fiscal and structural reforms by 2005. Among the key ones: Remove most state controls from industry; deregulate large chunks of the rest of the economy, including banks; liberalize trade rules; boost nonoil revenue sources; unify currency rates; and attract foreign investment.

    对于伊朗企业家来说,经济弊病都太明显了。一个复杂的,多层汇率系统阻碍了通过使过程太复杂而导出。一个严格的劳动法,提供扫地的工作保护阻碍了经理雇用新工人。虽然官方通货膨胀率为14.5%,但非官方估算将其降低至少5个百分点。燃料,粮食和能源的政府补贴吸收石油收入吸引宝贵的硬币。不断变化的税和海关法则呈现毫无意义。

    更重要的是,庞大的经济领域由Bonyad-e Mostazafan(被压迫者基金会)主导,这是一家庞大的企业集团,其激进的商业行为几乎消灭了伊朗经济各个领域的竞争。自1979年以来,Bonyad-e Mostazafan的资产被前沙阿及其亲信抛弃或从伊朗公民手中没收,它在许多行业几乎垄断经营,利用自己的财政实力将企业家赶出企业。在毛拉的庇护下,它的运作或多或少不受惩罚。

    Like other Iranian entrepreneurs, Aghili advised President Khatami to institute radical reforms. "I wrote to Khatami, setting out all the options we needed to take," he says. "Iran's financial sector needs a total overhaul, and I detailed every way it could be improved. I talked about the need to recognize the use of interest rates, the need to reform the insolvency law, to allow free foreign exchange, to force the bonyad to pay taxes, and to invest our oil revenues rather than squandering them."

    但是,争论改革需求的保守职员的战斗已经漫长而艰巨。在伊斯兰神学精通但经济学无知,许多穆拉斯对现代金融及其从业者深感怀疑。在20世纪90年代末,哈塔米政权允许多年浪费了几年,以允许全方位的外国和私人银行,但将他们限制在波斯湾的伊朗群岛上的自由贸易区。尽管采取了自由的投资代码,但很少有人愿意在距离该国的人口中心数百英里的海上岛屿上运营。

    一些实用主义者,如受过美国教育的伊朗央行行长努尔巴赫什,呼吁采取更激进的选择:国有银行私有化、里亚尔浮动和允许外国银行开设分行。但努尔巴什的观点引起了强大的伊斯兰监督机构“守护者理事会”(Council of Guarders)保守派神职人员的愤怒。由于担心国家对经济的控制力减弱,以及几乎资不抵债的国家银行倒闭,委员会拒绝批准出售这些银行。但努尔巴什的坚持赢得了一个有价值的妥协:7月份,议会同意了一个较小的要求——创建新的私人银行。

    除了卡拉法里南,另外两家机构——巴西安银行(Bank Parsian)和诺文银行(Bank Eghtessad Novin)——也成功争取到了全面的银行牌照。然而,这两家公司都有一部分由国有投资基金持有,这使它们不得不向德黑兰索取资本。因此,卡拉法里南是伊朗唯一一家真正的私人银行。

    对于Aghili,他回到伊朗之间的岁月与他的银行的实际建立之间的岁月远未浪费。在20世纪90年代,他帮助建立了该国最大的经纪房屋,该房子,其中他仍然是一个重要的股东;建立了商业咨询公司;并出版了一个伊朗经济学期刊,这提出了改革的案例。在这段期间,Aghili制作了对其银行的客户群的联系。“在证券交易所运行经纪人意味着我必须了解伊朗的主要建筑和制造公司的所有者,”他指出。

    Karafarinan使得贷款Ira的特产n's booming construction industry. As of this autumn it had $8 million in loans outstanding as well as $14 million in contractor bonds (such as advanced-payment guarantees). Profits in its first full year of operation were $200,000. The bank is about to open a branch in Isfahan, Iran's second most important business center. "With bonds and credit facilities, we're doing fine," says Aghili. "We've got the customers." On the strength of the bank's performance, he's in the midst of raising $8 million more in capital from his 500 Iranian shareholders to meet the $25 million minimum for a fully licensed bank.

    尽管如此,卡拉法兰是小的,它对经济的影响必将适度。无论如何,中央银行对私人银行活动规定了谨慎的限制,例如,规定他们在存款上支付的费率可以比国家银行(目前)高出2个百分点(目前,为期19%,为5年的17%存款)。“在存款方面,我们将尽我们所能吸引客户,”阿吉尼说,“但在我们捕获大部分国家的业务之前,这将需要一些时间。”

    央行行长努尔巴赫什(Nourbakhsh)正计划进行更多改革,旨在全面提振私人银行和私营部门。一方面,该行打算统一伊朗的货币汇率,最早可能在今年3月;这将鼓励非石油出口,同时为政府预算注入一些理性,目前政府预算的基础是混乱的官方和市场汇率。此后一段时间,政府可能会授权外国银行在伊朗开设分行。

    尽管如此,根深蒂固的利益意味着改革将缓慢而不确定地到来。”阿基利指出:“伊朗的经济政策是通过妥协而形成的。”但我觉得我正在尽我的一份力量来纠正这里生活中的一些消极方面。我正在为伊朗做一些积极的事情。”问题是毛拉们是否这么看。